CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 02/09 - 06Z WED 03/09 2003
ISSUED: 01/09 21:36Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across Northwestern Mediterranean

General thunderstorms are forecast across Northeastern and Eastern Europe

SYNOPSIS

Upper long wave trough placed over Europe ... with its axis pointing from eastern Scandinavia into southeastern Central Europe. Upper ridge affects northwestern Europe. Over the Mediterranean ... zonal westerly flow is present.

DISCUSSION

...Northwestern Mediterranean...
To the south of building ridge over western Europe ... surface cold front will dissolve over the northern Mediterranean. This cold front has been the focus of Monday's convective activity. To the south of this front ... rawinsonde data indicate an instable airmass over some places (e.g. Palma de Mallorca). During the forecast periode ... convection should be possible in the front's range, as upper short waves could provide UVM by WAA and DCVA. Moderate deep layer shear could support thunderstorm organization ... and one or two MCS should be possible over the western Mediterranean. Strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat in association with this convection, as well as intense precipitation. However ... as low level wind shear could be adequate for supercells and low level moisture pooling is expected along the front ... some thunderstorms could rotate and large hail and tornados are not ruled out ATTM.

...Baltic Sea...
Upper trough will move eastward. Convectively mixed airmass is present over the Baltic Sea, and showers and thunderstorms should likely form. As low level humidity will be relatively high and vertical wind shear is expected to be rather low along the trough axis ... chance for water spouts is enhanced.

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